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Stochastic Musings
Exploring statistics, data, science, and epistemology
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A Problem with Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals may not adequately convey how certain a statistical model is

Jackson Curtis
Jun 20, 20224 min read
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5 Problems with Using Linear Regression for MMM (and what to do instead)
An introduction to some of the complexities of marketing mix modeling

Jackson Curtis
Jun 2, 20227 min read
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Why I'm Stoked to Join Recast
I'm so excited for my new career move

Jackson Curtis
Feb 21, 20224 min read
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A Baby Name Picking App
A shiny app implementing a MaxDiff exercise for choosing baby names

Jackson Curtis
Dec 28, 20212 min read
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This chart makes me grateful for computers
A chart I made for our family's baby guessing game

Jackson Curtis
Oct 15, 20212 min read
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The Conditional Birthday Problem
A famous stats problem with a surprise personal twist at the end.

Jackson Curtis
Sep 8, 20212 min read
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'Objective Ignorance' and the Limits of Predictability
How data scientists fool themselves into thinking prediction problems are easier than they are.

Jackson Curtis
Sep 6, 20213 min read
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I got on FiveThirtyEight!
What I learned that got me a shoutout on fivethirtyeight.com

Jackson Curtis
Aug 28, 20213 min read
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Can you interpret this simple linear regression?
Can you draw a valid conclusion from this regression and whether a player is paid appropriately?

Jackson Curtis
Jul 21, 20212 min read
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Ranking NBA Refs, pt. 3 - Uncertainty in Rankings
I look at the confidence intervals from my Bayesian model to assess reffing accuracy

Jackson Curtis
Jul 9, 20214 min read
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Ranking NBA Refs - pt. 2 Building a Bayesian Model
A walkthrough of my Bayesian model to rank NBA referees

Jackson Curtis
Jun 28, 20217 min read
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Ranking NBA Refs, pt. 1 - Modeling Bad Calls
Modeling the bad call rate among NBA refs using Bayesian poisson regression.

Jackson Curtis
Jun 22, 20213 min read
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XGBoost and Model Assumptions
My post this week is simply to emphasize the work Saupin Guillame found here. In his post, Saupin demonstrates that a major limitation of...

Jackson Curtis
Jun 9, 20213 min read
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Doctor or Quack: which kind of data scientist are you?
Are data scientists adopting some of the worst traits of alternative medicine?

Jackson Curtis
Jun 4, 20214 min read
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Questions about vaccine reporting
The primary endpoint in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines is "vaccine efficacy" which is essentially what percentage of COVID cases...

Jackson Curtis
Jun 3, 20211 min read
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Predicting Regression toward the Mean Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models
Regression toward the mean is a fascinating topic to me. It's completely ubiquitous across the world of statistical measurement, but can...

Jackson Curtis
May 29, 20217 min read
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