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Stochastic Musings
Exploring statistics, data, science, and epistemology
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A Problem with Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals may not adequately convey how certain a statistical model is

Jackson Curtis
Jun 20, 20224 min read


5 Problems with Using Linear Regression for MMM (and what to do instead)
An introduction to some of the complexities of marketing mix modeling

Jackson Curtis
Jun 2, 20227 min read


Why I'm Stoked to Join Recast
I'm so excited for my new career move

Jackson Curtis
Feb 21, 20224 min read


A Baby Name Picking App
A shiny app implementing a MaxDiff exercise for choosing baby names

Jackson Curtis
Dec 28, 20212 min read


This chart makes me grateful for computers
A chart I made for our family's baby guessing game

Jackson Curtis
Oct 15, 20212 min read


The Conditional Birthday Problem
A famous stats problem with a surprise personal twist at the end.

Jackson Curtis
Sep 8, 20212 min read


'Objective Ignorance' and the Limits of Predictability
How data scientists fool themselves into thinking prediction problems are easier than they are.

Jackson Curtis
Sep 6, 20213 min read


I got on FiveThirtyEight!
What I learned that got me a shoutout on fivethirtyeight.com

Jackson Curtis
Aug 28, 20213 min read


Can you interpret this simple linear regression?
Can you draw a valid conclusion from this regression and whether a player is paid appropriately?

Jackson Curtis
Jul 21, 20212 min read


Ranking NBA Refs, pt. 3 - Uncertainty in Rankings
I look at the confidence intervals from my Bayesian model to assess reffing accuracy

Jackson Curtis
Jul 9, 20214 min read


Ranking NBA Refs - pt. 2 Building a Bayesian Model
A walkthrough of my Bayesian model to rank NBA referees

Jackson Curtis
Jun 28, 20217 min read


Ranking NBA Refs, pt. 1 - Modeling Bad Calls
Modeling the bad call rate among NBA refs using Bayesian poisson regression.

Jackson Curtis
Jun 22, 20213 min read


XGBoost and Model Assumptions
My post this week is simply to emphasize the work Saupin Guillame found here. In his post, Saupin demonstrates that a major limitation of...

Jackson Curtis
Jun 9, 20213 min read


Doctor or Quack: which kind of data scientist are you?
Are data scientists adopting some of the worst traits of alternative medicine?

Jackson Curtis
Jun 4, 20214 min read


Questions about vaccine reporting
The primary endpoint in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines is "vaccine efficacy" which is essentially what percentage of COVID cases...

Jackson Curtis
Jun 3, 20211 min read


Predicting Regression toward the Mean Using Hierarchical Bayesian Models
Regression toward the mean is a fascinating topic to me. It's completely ubiquitous across the world of statistical measurement, but can...

Jackson Curtis
May 29, 20217 min read
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